Showing posts with label Fundamental. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fundamental. Show all posts

Market Trend in 2011

At the end of this year 2010, Wall Street is in overbought position, where both the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S & P 500 has rallied since last September, although in mid-November was corrected shortly. What about market trends in 2011?

Based on some fundamental indications last, where U.S. economic data improved lately. This makes the improved market confidence. Industry and energy sector got a blessing with rising commodity prices, projected sales of technology products and increasing consumer spending.

The instigation of the things mentioned above, then the market is predicted to rise again. The stock index S & P 500 is even believed to be ignoring this overbought status by continuing to rally, even in the year 2011. For the S & P 500 index, the increase in this sector could encourage the rise in the S & P 500 index by 17% by 2011 from current levels.

Some in the industry will recover next year as the weakening U.S. economic recession, even the financial sector is believed to begin to squirm again.

Such conditions make the stock market will move better over previous estimates. In other words, the market will move above the "normal" even though economic growth is not fantastic today.

Since March 9, 2009, S & P 500 Index has climbed 75% from its lowest position for the trust will market the U.S. economy. P / E ratio of 15, below an average of 16.4 since 1954.

The increase in the price of the shares at the end of the year, in the week between Christmas and New Year as a Santa Claus rally, cheer the market will likely carry over until the end of the year. Investors feel optimistic about the condition of next year. Action will certainly encourage investors to buy index rising higher. This step is a prefix of investor anticipation of the January Effect phenomenon.

Good investing, hopefully in 2011 will be the year of your success, Have nice trading ..

20 The Most Important Signal in MQL5

The operators try to find regularity in the behavior of prices, trying to establish rules for its use have the opportunity to determine a profitable time to buy or sell. To create a fully automated forex trading, you need to learn how to report the time as the next - MQL5 trading signals. The subject of the article is how to program 20 The Most Important Signal in MQL5.

Signal to inform dealers about the possible entry points position, but not all of them are forced to run. Additional criteria to further filter the signal, but it was significant to us. The theme of this article is how the 20 most popular programs MQL5 trading signal


20 Popular Signal Forex in MQL 5:

1. Intersection of Moving Averages Signal
2. Intersection of the Main and Signal Line of MACD
3. Breakthrough of the Price Channel Range Signal
4. Breakthrough of the Range of the ADX Adaptive Channel Signal
5. Exit from the Overbuying/Overselling Zones of Stochastic Signal
6. Exit from the Overbuying/Overselling Zones of RSI Signal
7. Exit from the Overbuying/Overselling Zones of CCI Signal
8. Exit from the Overbuying/Overselling Zones of Williams % Signal
9. Bounce from the Borders of the Bollinger Channel Signal
10. Bounce from the Borders of the Standard Deviation Channel Signal
11. Bounce from the Borders of the Price Channel Signal
12. Bounce from the Borders of the Envelopes Channel Signal
13. Breakthrough of the Donchian Channel Signal
14. Breakthrough of the Silver-Channel Signal
15. Breakthrough of the Gallagher Channel Signal
16. Change of Trend by NRTR Signal
17. Change of Trend by Alligator Signal
18. Change of Trend by AMA Signal
19. Change of Color of the Awesome Oscillator Signal
20. Change of Trend by Ichimoku Signal

for complete Setup Forex Trading Signals in MQL5 visit http://www.mql5.com/en/articles/130

Bretton Woods Agreement

In 1967, the bank of Chicago professor named Milton Friedman a loan of £ (Pound Sterling) refused because he planned to used the loan to sell and buy back the dollar, then we have to admit that the pound is high against the dollar price. He wanted to sell this money, then bought it when pound fell to a low price and return them to the bank. Of course, by the way he was quick profits. rejection of the bank caused the Bretton Woods agreement is 20 years later to set. Bretton Woods agreement to take U.S. dollars (USD) as a standard, and the exchange rate between the dollar and gold was $ 35 / 1 oz.


Agreement Bretton Woods Agreement was founded in 1944 committed to a stable monetary policy to avoid the free cash to another country to build. Avoid currency speculation in the world, as the gold exchange standard - prevailing from 1876 until World War I, the control system in the world economy. By using the gold exchange, currencies in a new era for the company because the shields of gold prices. In ancient times by kings and dictators of totalitarian transactions using gold as the main and lower the value of money causes inflation.

However, the standard used for exchange and not a lack of "broken." As the economy strengthens, imports of goods from abroad increased rapidly. But if the economy weakens, the national gold reserves needed money to buy foreign release performed, the result is a depreciation of the currency, interest rates fell and the economy began to slow down operations and cause a recession. Final goods rose more than the normal level, and of course the attraction of selling goods to other countries increased. This has caused huge buying power and an increase in the price of gold rose high at the moment, interest rates fell to its lowest point for creating wealth for the economy. The use of gold as a standard transaction that applies until the end of World War end the flow of transactions and gold are now free to move.

After the war the Bretton Woods agreement was established. Countries participating in the agreement agree to their own currency to maintain security by an amount equal to the dollar and the appropriate level of gold as needed. The lower the price of copper has been banned in their own language in transactions with foreign countries to facilitate, and are only allowed for the price of less than 10% lower. In 50 years of the 19th century, when the currency of international transactions was extended to the capital services for post-war reconstruction and rehabilitation was transferred en masse. This has led to foreign currency exchange rates destabilize established in the Bretton Woods agreement.

The Bretton Woods pact finally abolished in 1971, and currently the U.S. dollar (USD) can be used instead of gold (gold). In 1973, the currency advanced countries were freely floating, controlled resources at this level depends on the strength of the demand-supply (supply and demand) from the economy, they are a dynamic force in the foreign exchange impact. The price of the pair is recommended every day, with a large number of transactions, speed and price unchanged for 70 years from the 20th century, the application of new markets for financial instruments, which led to the earlier rule was abolished and the period of gradual liberalization of world trade.

In the '80s, the amplitude of movement of capital thanks to the explosive growth of the computer industry and technology, the market continues to grow in Asia, Europe and America ... The number of cash transactions in the foreign exchange market increased dramatically from 70 billion dollars per day to 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars a day two decades later.

Key to successful forex trading

Forex is a business that is very vulnerable to loss, maybe today you can big profit but could be the day after tomorrow you get a margin call. In this business you should really have the discipline and believe in yourself. Here are the key to successful forex trading.


1. Pray and believe PROFIT
2. Monitor News Calendar
3. Monitor Indicator and Correlation pairs
4. PATIENT, wait until the market running according Indicator (or use pending order before news)
5. Check EQUITY, MAXIMAL open trade 10% of capital
6. If already 99% sure, Open orders
7. DISCIPLINE, Do not be Greedy

  • If market running as expected, TP & SL maintained
  • If market is not running as expected, immediately CUT Lose and Shut Down PC. There is still a profitable tomorrow.



Technical PROFIT
1. Monitor News (use trapping news, pending orders two directions)
2. Check Market Type:
a. Strong Market
b. Sideways
c. SPECIAL EVENTS, ex: NFP, BoE, BoJ
3. Monitor Indicator
a. Open Market Price Check (OPEN +30 / -30)
b. Check the RSI, Stochastic, EMA
4. Do not hesitate to cut lose if the wrong position.
5. Believe in Yourself, if you lose do not suppose a market reversal. If you hold the position of pursuing profit and Maintenance SL /TP.

Swing Trader, Day Trader and Scalper

Every person has their own type of trading. This is because limited time, so trader cannot see the price at any time. Therefore choose to be more passive like Warren Buffet policy. There are also some people who have time and allowing sufficient access to monitor price movements and try to take profits as much as possible in the forex world. Thus he tried trading with open positions daily. In learning forex, trading above Type-common type is called Swing Trader, Day Trader and Scalper.


Swing Trader
is they who decide in a way that the first trading. The Swing traders tend to hold their position until the precious days to many months. Some even hold the position until one year! Traders with this pattern tend to wait until prices are at their best position and then took aim with the opening of a number of lots and placing a large enough profit targets. Usually they open a position only on very extreme conditions where the prices are very high or very low prices according to the history of the movement in recent weeks. Because this condition does not happen very often so once they get the opportunity to pursue the targets are very large and well balanced with sufficient funds to keep the price movements because they usually specify a Stop Loss point which is also quite large. That's why the Swinger often start trading them with decent capital of about $ 3,000 for a mini trading.

The Swinger is more often used the daily time frame or 4h to determine their long-term trend. To buy and sell decisions, they usually just use graph 1h only. The point is this: when they want to find the right moment to open a position then they will open a 1D or 4H chart them. Then they determine whether a trend is happening when, in the 1D graph. If the trend indicates the situation to the uptrend then they will only seek the position of Buy and Sell positions will not open at all.

Next they will search for the right time to open a position. The trick is to wait for the graph H1 is in the same direction as the D1. This means that if D1 indicates the direction up the Swinger will wait the time when H1 is also showing up direction. Buy After that position was done. When they go then they will usually determine how much of their profit targets. Average trader with this type will pursue the target profit of more than 100 points, thus requiring several days to several weeks to achieve.

Another thing to note is the Swinger was not even hesitate to take action to counter the trend just took the opening position. For example, when the price has already reached saturated area (say overbought) then they are not afraid to take positions Sell although trend is not over. Assuming they are to save time because they mostly do not like their graphics monitor constantly. That's why they have sufficient capital to withstand large price movements so with the assumption that soon the price will go down even though at this moment is still in the rising trend.

The advantages of betting with a model like this are the first on the relatively easy analysis. Please note that the larger the time frame that we use the more easily for us to predict price movements. Conversely the smaller the time frame that is used it will be increasingly difficult for us to predict correctly movements. This is because with a smaller time frame charts are often more jagged (whipsaw) so difficult to read the main trend.

Another convenience is the psychological pressure on the side. Due to the Swinger using a fairly large time frame then they usually do not need to monitor the movement of the chart every hour or every minute. Quite simply once in a single day is not a problem. As a result they will be more psychologically comfortable and protected from market pressures in each movement. Well happier life, Is not it? And for the same reasons they were usually able to perform their daily activities in addition to trading well.
The downside ? Of course there is! The most fundamental deficiency in the betting with a pattern like this Swing is in the capital problem. You cannot do Swing trading only with authorized $ 500! Stop Loss Due worn long enough so they usually require no small amount of capital for trading. At least $ 2,000. It was already very least once. Not to mention if they are not enough to just play with a lot just for one time the opening position, which included the capital can reach several times the starting $ 4,000 and even up to tens of thousands of dollars.
The second issue in swing trading is that there are on occasion obtained. Swinger Often this cannot be opened while the trader's position other types such as Day Trader or can Scalper Profit on existing movements. The cause was an opportunity for Swinger far less than other types of traders. That's because they have to wait for prices to be at both extremes to open a position. When prices are playing on the median line (center line) then they cannot do anything but wait. A tedious job!

Day Trader
a trader with a daily model. Usually this type of trader's position will be opened and closed that day. Oldest in the range of only a few days and very rarely goes past week. That is as much as possible they will close their positions before the beginning of next week begins. So if they open a position on the Thursday before the Saturday morning they will close their positions because they do not like to wait until Monday, where patterns and trends are taking place.

Now the Day Traders usually use the time frame or 1H 4H as a determinant of long term trend. While for the execution of their daily time frame rather use 15m.

Due to the time frame and a short trading period, they were the target profit is not too large. Exist only in the range below 100 points. Most are around 30-50 points. But precisely because their profit targets are not too big so they can perform the opening position several times in one day. In fact I once met a day traders are betting on up to 13 lots in one day when he entered the initial deposit of $ 500 only! It belongs to a very active day traders.

There are many benefits to be gained when people do day traders. This is primarily done on the initial deposit. A day traders can start only with a capital of $ 1,000 only. Even some who have advanced trading is able to develop funds to hundreds of percent in recent months from when they start only at $ 500 only. Nevertheless it is not advisable to start trading with a capital of only $ 500 because the magnitude of risk that might occur if you are a beginner. How else do not be fooled capital. Do you agree with the teacher of children?

Another benefit when you make trades with the pattern day traders are the many opportunities that can be taken. Due to the profit objective being pursued is not more than 100 points, this opportunity could arise almost every day in different types of major currency pairs. If you are clever enough, when prices are in the wave up or down, a day trader is able to get profit from there. The day traders will not think much about long-term trends like a Swinger. This is due to their trading is today. By looking at the movement today then that is market conditions that could be taken. That's why they use the time frame is relatively short as 15m or 10M.

Shortfall in trading with this pattern of course there is. If there are advantages to a Swinger on the ease of controlling the position, this would become an obstacle a day traders. A day trader must be strong enough to monitor the price movement several times each day. If not so they could lose their chance in the opening position. This in impact on the possibility of a day traders experiencing psychological distress resulting from price changes in seconds into the second. You who have never opened a real account or real account is running out I mean. On a real account, psychological point plays a very important far beyond any pressure.

Another deficiency is in excess of a day traders is the degree of its activity. The more active a person to open a position also taken the risk will be greater. So instead of a profit, a day traders who are not adept at reading the charts often experienced loss in large enough quantities in a short time.

Scalper
Scalping is of English origin (Scalp), which means it is fleas. Now trading with the type of scalping is more or less adopts this. Without demeaning the Scalper mean the world, they often take advantage of the situation very small price movements, and have no meaning for a Swinger. For them, the advantage is 10-15 points a day is important enough stability.

The point is this: By taking the advantage that small, the Scalper view that it is much easier than chasing gains 100 points in a single trading. Often they also take the number of lots that much more for a one-time opening position compared to most traders. If the capital of $ 2,000 a Swinger opened the lot just as much as two lots in a single transaction, the Scalper can open the position up to five times that number! What if there a margin call? Well the point was for them a margin call is a Stop Loss point them! But on the contrary when the profit amounted to 10 points they get, just imagine 10 x 5 = 50 lots. Just not with a day trader? But this time is much easier because only after 10 points only. Not to mention the profit target due to only 10 points, they can open a position many times to tens of times in one day. Hmm ... how active they are!

A scalper typically using 1H and 5M time frame in their trading. 1H useful to determine the major trend is happening while the 5M is used as a determinant of execution.

O yes, for a scalper, spread a very important role for them. The scalper is often times find a broker with a very small spreads. The smaller the better for them because the only difference between 1-2 points is very important.

The advantages of trading with a model like this is easy We get the profit that we pursue. The movement of 10 points can be achieved even when the market is very, very quiet and London and New york stock exchange was closed! Activeness. We must also open a position much larger than a Day Trader moreover Swinger. Capital which is included also do not need very large. $ 1,000 was more than enough. Even $ 500 was not a problem.

The downside? There. The most major problem is determining the point of a Stop Loss that will be taken. With the target profit is only 10 points so if we want a balanced then SL but we also have the same size that is 10 points. But the problem is the same as the target 10 points can be achieved easily, the Stop Loss limit of 10 points no less easy.

Then how do we determine if SL for 30 points? Is not it easier to profit while the SL became much more loose? True. However 3 x your income in the only loss 1x everything is even.

Well if Scalping without SL how? It is also not less difficult. It will be much easier to achieve profit. But imagine you had to wait for days because of your position floating negative but when you take your profit is only just 10 Points! Is not that weird? We bear the risk of a Margin Call is up to the level where almost all the money we lost but the benefits that we take only 10 points! It really makes no sense.



Ok it is a variety of trading methods used by traders in the world. It should be understood here that no single trading method that has been mentioned above is better than other methods. Each method has its own success people who have tried this method for years. But there also are losing money because of it.
The key here is to find a trading method that's right for you. Try asking yourself how much time and capital you have? Are you a busy in their daily work? If yes then join the Swingers. Or if you're happy with the adventure, join the Scalpers. No problems at all. As long as it suits your personality then it would be really useful.
What should be emphasized here is the use of multiple time frame will greatly assist you in determining the current conditions in the market. One simple key in determining the time frame is: the smaller time frame will always obey the larger time frame. This is important for you to understand. If you find your H1 graph shows the opposite direction D1 down and you show up it is a good way to wait until both are unidirectional. Or if you were forced to open a position so follow the larger time frame! Because within the next few hours it will drop the price but within days the price will keep rising and rising!





How to be a Contrarian

A contrarian investor does not always go against the crowd. Rather they look for situations when the market, a sector or a stock is significantly mis-priced. Along the way, they maintain their trading discipline keeping down side protection in place should the market change direction. How to be a Contrarian ?


Contrarians know they must not fight the prevailing trend. If the market is moving from the lower left to the upper right, they participate. When signs the trend is ending, they add more down side protection to their portfolios including reducing the size of their long positions.

Once the trend has turned and their trailing stops and protective puts have down their job, they look to find a new trend to follow. This can be a downtrend. They do not fight the trend. Rather they embrace it.

Contrarian investors look for situations when the market, sector, or stock becomes significantly overvalued or undervalued. These situations offer good entry or exit opportunities to capture additional profits. When an opportunity presents itself, contrarian investors complete their thorough evaluation before the make a commitment. Mis-priced opportunities arrive when people let their emotions take control over logic and analysis.

Contrarian investors believe that following the crowd leads to losses and missed opportunities. When the crowd reacts to news or speculation about a stock or the market, the price can rise of fall so far, that has mis-priced the value of the company or the market.

For example, a company finds it must recall a product due to a design or manufacturing problem. The recall causes widespread pessimism about the company and drives the price of the stock to new lows. The problem is real though the perception of the value of the stock is misplaced. Contrarian investors recognize these situations as opportunities. Once the selling is over and the company puts in place the necessary actions to correct the problem, the price recovers. Any investors who bought shares when the problem was at its worst, realize above average gains.

Similarly, widespread optimism often results in high valuations that cannot be justified by fundamentals. Eventually, the market recognizes the situation and the price falls. Again, contrarian investors try to avoid these highly hyped stocks, as the risk of a fall is greater than the reward of it climbing higher.

The contrarian investor looks to be part of the "smart money," those few investors who recognize that crowd behavior tends to be wrong often. When the smart money players recognize this situation, they seek to benefit from the extreme sentiment expressed by the crowd. Bad news often overstates the risk and prospects of a company. Many investors will sell these shares in a panic to avoid owning the company's shares. Contrarian investors identify and buy distressed stocks, selling them when the company recovers, leading to market beating returns.

In similar fashion, overly optimistic investors can drive up the price of a stock or the market to valuations that do not make economic sense. Eventually, these high expectations do not pan out and the price plunges. Contrarian investors are careful to exit or avoid these exaggerated situations. By going against the crowd, that has an unfounded belief in direction of the market, contrarian investors prepare to go the other way and avoid the losses the masses experience.

Deciding when to enter a contrarian trade requires a certain amount of fortitude and confidence. In 1999 and early 2000, the dot-com boom was underway. Many investors believe that the internet ass changing the nature of business. As a result, many of the fundamental and technical measures of performance were no longer valid. Along the way, many people bought into the market driving up the net capital inflows to all time highs. Much of this new money came from retail or non-professional investors driving up the NASDAQ. Once the inflow of new money tapered off, there was nothing left to support the extremely overvalued market. The market crashed.

Those who recognized that the market was overvalued were able to exit their positions. A few contrarian investors did not believe the hype. While many of them missed the run up, they also avoided the plunge. A few others maintained their trading discipline keeping their down side protection in place. When the market turned against them, they were able to exit their positions after enjoying the incredible run up.

The April 28, 2008 issue of Barron's had an article titled "Back in the Pool." They surveyed a number of professional investors to get an idea of their thoughts on the market. At the time the market had been in a rally that began in 2003 and was reaching what some thought were over heated conditions. Here are the results of the survey:

1) Describe your investment outlook through December 2008:
'¢ Very Bullish: 7%
'¢ Bullish: 43%
'¢ Neutral: 38%
'¢ Bearish: 12%
'¢ Very Bearish: 0%

2) Is the U.S. stock market overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued at current levels?
'¢ Overvalued: 10%
'¢ Undervalued: 55%
'¢ Fairly valued: 35%

Essentially, there was a strong crowd mentality as the vast majority viewed the market favorably. By the end of 2008, the S&P 500 had fallen from a high in the 1400 area to 735 area. Those that stayed long saw their portfolios fall by more than 40%.



PPI Shows Inflation is Still Easing, While U.S. Housing Data Disappoint Markets!

Inflation in the United States continues to show mixed signals, whereas the producer price index signaled inflationary pressures eased in September, as the ongoing weakness in demand levels amid rising unemployment and tightened credit conditions continue to weigh down on prices, meanwhile the housing market is still showing signs of stabilization, as we are yet to see a strong rebound in the housing market activity.

The producer price index declined in September by 0.6% following the prior reported 1.7% rise back in August and well below median estimates for a flat estimate, while compared with a year earlier PPI declined by 4.8% more than the prior and expected estimate of -4.3%, meanwhile, core PPI declined by 0.1% also below median estimates and the prior estimates of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, while compared with a year earlier core PPI rose by 1.8% down from the prior rise of 2.3% and below median estimates of 2.0%.

prices dropped over a variety of items, whereas gasoline prices dropped by 5.4% in September following the prior huge rise of 23.0% back in August, and consumer goods dropped by 0.7%, which further signals that the ongoing weak demand levels will probably continue to weigh down on the general level of prices and this rather supports the Feds’ projections that core inflation will remain subdued.

However, the outlook of inflation remains a major worry for the Federal Reserve Bank at the moment, as though inflation is still under control over the short term, yet over the long term, the outlook for inflation is a threat, as it’s widely expected that inflation rates will start to soar once the economy regains its health due to the huge increase in money supply as a result of the Feds’ programs.

The U.S. economy started to show signs of recovery during the third quarter of this year, and it’s widely expected now that the U.S. economy started to expand during the third quarter, as activity in the manufacturing, services, and housing sectors seem to be either stabilizing or even rising, however, this doesn’t mean that we are out of the woods yet, as challenges remain.

The housing market in specific has been showing signs that the worst slump for the sector since the Great Depression is coming to and end, as the housing market seems to have hit the bottom, whereas cheap home values in addition to the government’s aid for first time home buyers managed to help the sector and helped in stabilizing activity, yet the housing sector still has a long way to go.

Housings starts rose less than expected in September according to a report released today, whereas housing starts rose by 3,000 to 590,000 units from the prior revised estimate of 587,000 and well below estimates of 610,000, while building permits declined in September to 573,000 from the prior revised estimate of 580,000 and below expectations of 590,000.

The housing market will probably continue to show signs of stabilization over the upcoming period, as we don’t expect activity to start rising over a noticeable pace yet, especially, as rising unemployment and tightened credit conditions continue to weigh down on overall activity including activity in the housing market.

Article source : http://www.fxstreet.com

Financeroll News

After data, Euro erases gains vs. dollar

Financeroll.com – The euro fell against the dollar on Friday, erasing gains made after the U.S. jobs report for August.

The euro fell to a session low of $1.4226 and last traded 0.1 percent lower at $1.4237. U.S. employers cut a fewer-than-expected 216,000 jobs while the unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high of 9.7 percent.

Against the yen, the dollar see-sawed after the jobs report and was last up 0.4 percent at 92.99 yen after hitting a session low of 92.26 yen immediately after the data.

Dollar trades in upper 92 yen range

TOKYO, Sept. 4 (Finance Roll) -- The U.S. dollar traded in the upper 92 yen range Friday in Tokyo.
At 5 p.m., the dollar was quoted at 92.85-87 yen versus 92.60- 70 yen in New York and 92.42-44 yen in Tokyo at 5 p.m. Thursday.
The euro traded at 1.4270-4271 dollars and 132.50-54 yen against 1.4247-4257 dollars and 131.96-132.06 yen in New York and 1.4293-4295 dollars and 132.10-14 yen in Tokyo late Thursday.



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News Macro Economics Foreign exchange rates in Singapore
11:55:8 pm (Fri) Sydney, Australia 10:55:8 pm (Fri) Tokyo, Japan 2:55:8 pm (Fri) London, UK 9:55:8 am (Fri) New York, US
Foreign exchange rates in Singapore
News - Macro Economics
Written by Gao Chuan


SINGAPORE, Sept. 4 (Finance Roll) -- The following are inter-bank rates of foreign currencies against the Singapore dollar on Friday.

Friday Thursday
bid/ask bid/ask

Australian dollar 1.2099/1.2117 1.1983/1.2002
British pound 2.3509/2.3534 2.3317/2.3341
Euro 2.0519/2.054 2.0519/2.3341
Hong Kong dollar 0.1855/0.1858 0.1861/0.1863
Japanese yen 100 1.5477/1.55 1.5577/1.5597



GPB, CAD Most Vulnerable in a USD Recovery


by Swiss e Trade Strategy Team

While the Euro is still the most stable currency against the dollar, the British pound and the Canadian dollar are more volatile. This is in contrast to the notion that the pound and the CAD should be closer in trade terms to the USD than the EUR on first sight. But that is not true anymore - the trade-weighted USD index shows clear overweight towards the euro. So when it comes to a decision which currency to short in a USD recovery, it is not the EUR, it is the GPB, CAD, AUD, or even the Swiss franc. Right now the USD seems to be recovering from oversold levels, so we would concentrate on the more volatile currencies against the Greenback, and not on the EUR.

Below are our projections in the major pairs for today‘s trading. Note the U.S. existing home sales for April, at 16:00 CET. A slight increase is expected, which would confirm a possible low in this troubled market.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The pair has lost its upward momentum over the last two days, continuing to consolidate its higher levels this European morning, and is currently trading at 1.3965 in low volatility. We expect more down movement in today’s trading hours, leading to levels around the 1.3900 support zone.

GBP / USD
The pound has just passed the 1.6000 long-term resistance level in early Europen trading against the dollar and is currently priced at 1.6010. With the market heavily overbought, we do not expect much more upside potential at this point for today. A downward correction is more likely, gaining momentum during today, to the 1.5850 level.

USD / CHF
A dull market for the dollar against the Swiss franc developed this European morning, currently trading around the 1.0850 support zone. We expect recovery moves today, testing the 1.0930 level again.

USD / JPY
Against the yen, the Dollar recovered remarkably in Asian trading and is keeping its higher levels in European trading. Currently priced at 95.40 near its highs, we expect the USD to break the 95.50 resistance level today, moving to a high of 95.90.

USA : Federal criminal authorities to probe SEC member

Jakarta, Financeroll.com - Federal criminal authorities to probe 2 Securities and Exchange

Commission member (SEC) for allegedly using illegal insider information to trade stocks.

SEC's watchdog expect that 2 attorney traded in stocks in one of a large financial services

company, which that company as still being in problem too. The important is the 2 attorney

are works in the office of the SEC's Chief Counsel who has access to a tremendous amount of

nonpublic information, SEC spokesman said. SEC is in charge of policing stock markets and

protecting investors. And this event apprehensive about will smearing SEC and bloting Wall

Street's reputation.

Market view 1st week Mey 2009

U.S. Jobless Rate Hits 8.9%

Jakarta, Financeroll.com – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate surged to 8.9 percent in April, its highest point in a generation. But some economists saw glimpses of a bottom in the latest grim accounting of job losses.

The economy, while still bleeding hundreds of thousands of jobs, is starting to lose them at a slower pace, offering the latest hint that the recession is bottoming out. Economists were expecting job losses of 600,000 in April, and predicted the unemployment rate would rise to 8.9 percent from 8.5 percent in March.

The United States economy lost 539,000 jobs in April, the government reported on Friday, a sign that the relentless pace of job losses was starting to level off slightly.


US April payrolls fall 539,000

U.S. employers cut a smaller-than-expected 539,000 jobs in April, the smallest amount since October, according to government data on Friday that hinted at some improvement in the labor market and the recession-hit economy.

March's payrolls figure was revised to show a decline of 699,000, compared with a previously reported drop of 663,000. Job losses in February were bumped up to 681,000 from the previously estimated 651,000.



Seoul shares end firm after choppy trade
Stock Market


Seoul shares ended firmer after a volatile session that saw the main index move in and out of positive territory on Friday, before the release of U.S. jobs data keeping investors in check, but insurers rose.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) finished up 0.79 percent at 1,412.13 points. The KOSPI was in overbought territory according to its 20-day relative strength index.

The number of jobs U.S. non-farm payrolls shed last month will enter the spotlight on Friday as investors try to gauge whether the end of a deep recession is in sight.

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co Ltd rose 5.71 percent, while Hyundai Marine & Fire advanced 4.05 percent. Samsung Fire on Friday forecast 3.6 percent growth in its net profit to 620 billion won ($491 million) in the fiscal year ending next March from the previous year.

Meanwhile, shares in Hyundai Engineering & Construction jumped 6.31 percent after news that seven South Korean banks sold a stake in the company in a block deal at the high end of their offered range.

But a stronger won continued to weigh on some exporting issues on concerns it may dent the price competitiveness of South Korean goods.

Hyundai Motor, South Korea's top carmaker, ended down 1.65 percent, and Hynix Semiconductor, the world's No.2 memory chipmaker, retreated 1.07 percent.

USD, Yen, Poundsterling

Forex Market view
Metatrader

Sterling bounce up in Asia session

Asian stock markets have gone through a sell session for the second time in a row this week on the back sharp declines in of financials. Meanwhile the Pound has bounced up against the Dollar after yesterday’s sell off.
Tokyo Nikkei Index has declined 3.3% and Hong Kong’s stock markets have also posted declines beyond 3% on Tuesday.

Financials and energy firms have lead declines on Tuesday, following Wall Street’s path, banks’ shares have been sold despite buoyant quarterly earnings’ results by Bank of America. Investors seem to be hesitant to believe that the global banking system is back to normal yet.

The GBP/USD has dropped to 1.4465 on early Asian session, bounce up to 1.4575 intra-day high, and hovers below 1.4570/80 resistance level.

The USD/JPY has also bounced up from 97.70 intra-day low, the Dollar has bounced to 98.45 high on late Asian session.

The Euro has remained rangebound, trading from 1.2900 to 1.2950, approaching to the highest level of the range ahead of the European session opening.


Trade deficit speculation drag yen

The yen fell for the first time in four days against the euro and the dollar before a government report tomorrow that may show Japan posted a trade deficit last month, damping the currency’s appeal as a refuge. The euro traded near a five-week low against the dollar on speculation the European Central Bank will cut interest rates further and signal it may pump money into the region’s economy to spur growth. The yen also pared the past week’s advance against the euro as technical indicators showed the Japanese currency’s recent gains were excessive.

Japan’s currency dropped to 126.70 per euro from 126.48 in New York yesterday. The yen has still gained 3.6 percent against the euro in the past week and earlier reached 126.09, the strongest level since March 16. The yen declined to 98.02 per dollar from 97.89, and weakened to 68.61 against Australia’s currency from 68.20.

The dollar traded at $1.2924 per euro from $1.2921 yesterday, when it reached $1.2889, the highest level since March 16. The U.S. currency was at $1.4515 versus the British pound from $1.4539.

The euro may weaken on concern the recession in the 16- nation region will worsen. Germany’s ZEW Center for European Economic Research may say today its gauge of current conditions fell to minus 90 in April, the lowest since September 2003, from minus 89.4 in March.


Euro still under pressure.
The euro is expected to remain under pressure from the dollar and the yen this week amid a focus on central-bank policy.
A week of losses for the euro took the shared European currency to the verge of dropping below the $1.30 mark for the first time in a month.
The euro had rallied after the Federal Reserve in mid-March announced an expansion of its government debt purchases and other unconventional monetary-policy measures. If coming Euro Zone Data disappoint, Euro could fall as far as $1.25 at least, underscoring the less-proactive [European Central Bank] approach."
Traders and analysts also are speculating about what easing measures the European Central Bank could announce at its May 7 policy meeting. Late Friday in New York, the euro was at $1.3026, down from $1.3171 late Thursday, and at 129.18 yen, from 130.82 yen. The dollar was at 99.25 yen, from 99.32 Thursday. The U.K. pound was at $1.4784, from $1.4925, and the dollar was at 1.1674 Swiss francs, from 1.1480 francs.
Another likely theme for the week is the marked subsidence of global risk aversion. This blush of optimism has come amid some encouraging earnings reports from U.S. financial companies and a resurgence in commodity prices, helping to feed a global stock market rally over the past six weeks and boosting risk- and growth-sensitive currencies.
Last week's best performers against the dollar were the U.K. pound and the Canadian dollar. These two currencies will continue to be watched as currency-market proxies for the relative level of risk sentiment.
The pound is a currency that would be expected to perform strongly in light of the improved conditions for risky assets, and to some extent it has. (WSJ)


Kohn: U.S. economy will stabilize and recover this year
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said the U.S. economy may stabilize in the second half and begin a slow rebound after a strengthening of fragile financial markets. Consumer spending appears to have steadied, and the housing contraction has slowed, Kohn said yesterday at the University of Delaware in Newark. “These developments may be an early indication that conditions are falling into place” for real gross domestic product “to decline at a slower rate in the second quarter and to stabilize later this year,” he said.

Policy makers are trying to revive credit and end what may be the worst U.S. economic slump since World War II by holding the benchmark interest rate to as low as zero and extending credit to companies other than banks.

The Fed has used its balance sheet to back lending, money markets and securitization, expanding its total assets by $1.3 trillion over the past year to $2.19 trillion. Congress approved a $787 billion economic stimulus package in February that may pump $185 billion into the economy this year.

“We are still dealing with the consequences of the developments that precipitated the downturn,” Kohn said. “Accordingly, my best guess is that we are in for a relatively gradual recovery, though a very wide range of uncertainty surrounds that outlook.”

Kohn’s comments are in line with remarks last week from Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who said there are signs that the sharp decline in the U.S. economy is slowing, indicating a potential first step toward a recovery from the worst recession in a generation. Kohn’s speech provided a more- detailed economic outlook than Bernanke’s April 14 comments.

“Financial markets have improved some since last fall, though they remain disrupted and fragile,” Kohn said. “The path of the economy will depend critically on how quickly the current stresses in financial markets abate.”

Fed officials decided last month to boost purchases this year of mortgage-backed securities to $1.25 trillion, and housing agency bonds to $200 billion. The Fed’s Open Market Committee also voted to buy $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.

The economy contracted at a 5 percent annual pace in the first quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey, following a 6.3 percent downturn in the final quarter of 2008.

Kohn said consumer confidence “took a major hit last fall, and my best guess is that it will recover slowly along with the financial markets and the economy.” Consumer confidence rose in April, according to a preliminary reading of an index tracked by Reuters/University of Michigan. The April sentiment reading rose to 61.9, up from 57.3 in March and a three-decade low of 55.3 in November.

“Once financial conditions stabilize, the economy regains its footing, and households sense that better prospects lie ahead, confidence could rebound more vigorously, leading to a more rapid pickup in purchases,” Kohn said.

The inventory of U.S. single-family homes, townhouses and condominiums decreased to a 9.7 month supply in February, down from 11.3 months in April last year as lower mortgage rates and lower home prices spurred purchases.

“Recent data suggest that the multiyear contraction in home sales and new construction may be nearing an end,” Kohn said. That may aid the economy, yet “because inventories of unsold homes are still very high relative to sales, it may take a while for any pickup in demand to translate into higher production,” he said.

In response to an audience question, Kohn said that because of a large inventory of unsold houses, “we’re going to continue to see at least some downward pressure on prices.”

The recession that began in December 2007 has come at a high cost to U.S. growth, employment and wealth.

Unemployment rose to 8.5 percent in March, the highest since 1983. U.S. home prices fell 8.2 percent in 2008, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Household net worth fell $11.2 trillion in 2008, according to Fed data.

Even so, “I don’t think it is premature to start to ponder the shape that a recovery when it occurs, would be likely to take,” Kohn said.

Another obstacle for the Fed is that “there are sizable risks on both sides of the inflation forecast,” Kohn said. Without mentioning the word deflation, he said that “substantial declines in inflation would raise real interest rates.”

At the same time, “my colleagues and I are acutely aware of the risk of higher inflation as the economic recovery gains speed,” Kohn said.

The Fed is ready to raise interest rates “when needed,” he said, reiterating that the central bank is working with the Treasury Department to seek legislation that would help the Fed tighten credit after adding more than $1 trillion in assets to its balance sheet.

The consumer price index fell 0.4 percent in March from a year before, the first annual decline since 1955. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 1.8 percent for the year ending February, within a range preferred by several Fed officials. (bloomberg/reuters)


BOJ lower economy estimation

The Bank of Japan will probably cut its forecasts for the economy and prices next week as the recession takes a toll on spending by companies and households.
The world’s second-largest economy will probably contract 4.2 percent in the year to March 2010, more than twice the pace the central bank projected three months ago. Consumer prices excluding fresh food will tumble 1.3 percent, also faster than the bank’s earlier estimate.

Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said this month that the economy has underperformed since January and weakening spending by companies and consumers will impair growth even as declines in exports and production moderate. Prime Minister Taro Aso’s record 15.4 trillion yen stimulus package is unlikely to sustain a recovery.

BOJ policy makers are expected to present a pretty cautious view of the economic outlook because the risk lingers that growth will stumble after being lifted temporarily by fiscal stimulu. The bank may place a big emphasis on the downside risks for the outlook.

With the benchmark interest rate already at 0.1 percent, the bank will probably be forced to buy more debt issued by the government and companies to inject money into an economy heading for the worst recession since 1945, analysts said.

The central bank releases the twice-yearly outlook on April 30 in Tokyo. The report will present board members’ forecasts for gross domestic product and consumer prices in the year ending March 2010 and the following 12 months. The semiannual reports, which are reviewed each January and July, also describe the bank’s policy direction.

In January, the board predicted the economy would shrink 2 percent this fiscal year before expanding 1.5 percent next year. Consumer inflation will tumble 1.1 percent this fiscal year and drop 0.4 percent in the next.

The economists surveyed said conditions will improve next fiscal year. They expect GDP will grow 0.9 percent and core prices will fall 0.5 percent.

There are signs that economies are emerging from freefall at home and abroad, but it will take more than a year before Japan can return to a sustainable growth path.

Japanese manufacturers planned to increase output in March and April, ending a five-month drop, a government report showed last month. Gauges of confidence among consumers, merchants and small businesses all rose in March.

"We’re starting to see signs that declines in exports and output are moderating,” Shirakawa said at an annual meeting of Japanese trust banks in Tokyo today. Even so, “downside risk remains” as declining corporate profits affect household income and employment, he said.

The central bank will probably stick to its view that the economy will start to improve later this fiscal year. Even so, it expected growth won’t take root at least until late 2010 and the bank will eventually be forced to push back its prediction for a recovery.

An unprecedented decline in exports has saddled manufacturers with too many workers and excessive capacity, the central bank’s quarterly Tankan survey showed on April 1, signaling more cuts in jobs and capital investment are likely.

Toshiba Corp. last week said it will cut 3,900 temporary jobs this fiscal year, on top of 4,500 eliminations announced in January. The chipmaker will also reduce research and development spending by 18 percent.

Production capacity and employment are becoming excessive. Investment and consumer spending continue to weaken and corporate failures may accelerate.

The policy board will probably keep the benchmark overnight lending rate at 0.1 percent before releasing the outlook report, according to 15 of the 16 economists surveyed. One predicted a cut to a range of zero to 0.1 percent.

HK Shares End Up On China Stimulus Hopes; China Mobile Gains

Written by denny yahya

Jakarta, Financeroll.com – Hopes of an economic rebound in China and more stimulus measures from Beijing drove Hong Kong shares higher for the third straight session Wednesday, with index heavyweight China Mobile catching up to the broader market.

Traders said investors expect positive quarterly earnings reports from companies, which would help keep share prices buoyant. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index rose 89.46 points, or 0.57%, to 15,669.62 after trading between 15,213.39 and 15,669.85 during the session. Turnover totaled HK$66.26 billion, down from HK$75.42 billion Tuesday.

China Mobile jumped 4.8% to HK$73.15, contributing 74.58 points of the HSI's rise. Credit Suisse said in a note China Mobile is "a laggard against the recent market rally, but its valuation is becoming more attractive."

Citic Pacific rose 3.2% to HK$12.78, extending its 28.7% gain over the last two sessions, on optimism over management changes that give the conglomerate's state-run parent firmer control.

Bernanke Says Fed Must Retain Flexibility to Tighten Credit

Jakarta, Financeroll.com – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank must retain the flexibility to withdraw its record injection of credit into the economy to keep inflation in check when the crisis abates.


The central bank’s emergency “activities must not constrain the exercise of monetary policy as needed to meet our congressional mandate to foster maximum sustainable employment and stable prices,” Bernanke said in the text of a speech in Charlotte, North Carolina. The U.S. central bank has effectively printed money to buy or lend against a range of assets to alleviate the credit crunch and revive the economy. Bernanke’s speech today detailed steps that the Fed can take to remove that liquidity.

Bernanke also rebuffed criticism from some analysts that the Fed is favoring some credit markets over others in the emergency programs it has set up in the past six months. The Fed chief hailed a decline in home-loan rates in the wake of the central bank’s purchases of mortgage securities, and said the drop may help improve the housing market.

The central bank has expanded its balance sheet by $1.2 trillion over the past year, taking on assets including mortgage securities, corporate debt and now long-term Treasuries under the Fed’s latest policy decision last month. The Fed’s Open Market Committee decided to buy as much as $300 billion of long-term Treasuries after a split between some officials over how best to ease the credit crunch.

Bernanke said that the Fed’s lending for purchases of commercial paper and securities backed by consumer and business loans don’t mean it’s engaging in “credit allocation.” He said “our programs have been aimed at improving financial and credit conditions broadly.”

The Fed’s tools for raising short-term interest rates once the crisis wanes include unwinding the emergency-loan programs, conducting reverse repurchase agreements against long-term securities holdings and increasing the rate the Fed pays on bank reserves, Bernanke said. The emergency programs were designed to be “unwound as markets and the economy revive.”

Bernanke reiterated that the Fed and Treasury are seeking unspecified legislation to give the Fed “additional tools for managing bank reserves.” San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said last month that the central bank wants authority to issue its own debt.

Bernanke said the Fed expects to be “fully repaid” on loans made in connection with the bailouts of Bear Stearns Cos. and American International Group Inc. “From a credit perspective, these support facilities carry more risk than traditional central bank liquidity support, but we nevertheless expect to be fully repaid,” Bernanke said.


House Democrats Slash More Than $100B From Obama's Plan

Budget Leaders Refuse to Include More Funding for Financial Sector Bailout.

Jakarta, Financeroll.com – House budget leaders have sliced more than $100 billion from President Obama's spending plan, and today they unveiled a $3.45 trillion budget blueprint for the fiscal year that begins in October.

Much of the difference comes from a decision by House leaders to jettison Obama's plan to seek more cash for the Treasury Department's financial-sector bailout, a decision that would reduce the projected deficit but not prevent the administration from requesting the money.

The result is a spending plan that would drive the annual deficit to $1.2 trillion next year, compared with $1.4 trillion under Obama's request. Over the next five years, the deficit would fall to just under $600 billion, requiring the nation to borrow $3.9 trillion, compared with $4.4 trillion under Obama's plan.

Like a competing proposal unveiled in the Senate, the House plan would permit lawmakers to pursue Obama's priorities on health care, education and energy only if those initiatives do not increase the deficit. Unlike the Senate, the House is proposing to use a procedural shortcut to push Obama's health-care and education proposals through the Senate without Republican votes.

White house budget director Peter Orszag praised the House blueprint, as well as its counterpart in the Senate. Although the plans "may not be identical twins" when compared with Obama's proposal, he said, "they're certainly brothers who look substantially alike."

Obama is expected to deliver a similar message today when he goes to Capitol Hill to sell his budget blueprint to Senate Democrats, a dozen of whom this week sent a letter to Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, complaining that "the deficits projected by CBO are simply not acceptable." Conrad's adjustments to the president's proposal, presented to Senate Democrats at a luncheon yesterday, won early approval from some signatories. "It's improving," said Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.).

To bring down deficits, Conrad proposes slashing $160 billion from Obama's request for nondefense programs over the next five years, including a reduction of $15 billion in fiscal 2010 that targets international programs, among others. Conrad also would jettison the $250 billion Obama included in his budget for the Treasury Department's bailout of the financial system, a move that lowers the deficit projection but would not prevent Obama from requesting the funds.

Conrad also pressed some Bush-era budget maneuvers eliminated by Obama back into service: Instead of a 10-year budget that shows deficits steadily accumulating, for example, Conrad is proposing a five-year spending plan. And Conrad assumes that the alternative minimum tax will strike millions of middle-class families, generating billions of additional dollars in 2013 and 2014, though Congress has acted repeatedly to prevent that. (WP)

Japan's Recession

Jakarta, Financeroll.com
Yen falls vs dollar

The yen fell, approaching a one- week low against the dollar on speculation government reports will show Japan’s recession is deepening, reducing demand for the currency as a refuge from world financial turmoil.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained against the yen as Asian stocks extended a global rally, spurring investors to seek higher-yielding assets. The euro fell versus 13 of the 16 major currencies as the Wall Street Journal reported that Banque AIG, a unit of American International Group Inc.’s Financial Products division, may face defaults on $234 billion of derivatives after two executives in Paris stepped down.

The yen fell to 97.81 against the dollar. The currency was at 132.70 per euro. The dollar traded at $1.3570 per euro and was at $1.4592 versus the British pound. The Australian dollar climbed to 68.40 yen, and the New Zealand currency gained to 56.06 yen.

The yen weakened against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies today before a trade ministry report tomorrow that may show retail sales declined for a sixth straight month.

Trend market move ?

How To Play Warren Buffett’s Inflation Warning

By Colin McCabe on March 11, 2009
More Posts By Colin McCabe
Author's Website

Warren Buffett said on CNBC earlier Monday that the Fed’s expansionary measures “are potentially very inflationary” and the result could be “worse than the 1970’s inflation”.


If you’ve been following my research, this is nothing new. I’ve been warning you about a 1970’s style inflation tsunami for some time.

But now that the Oracle of Omaha is saying it on national television, Wall Street might start to catch on.

And if you want to make FAT profits in the next 12 months, you need to beat them to the punch.

Beef-up your portfolio with shares in companies producing (or exploring for) hard assets that appreciate in an inflationary environment.

Gold… silver… even copper and nickel, are great inflation hedges. Oil also performs very well.

I’m backing up the truck with stocks in these industries. And you should be too.

Look specifically for small companies sitting on (or near) discoveries that are marginal to uneconomic to produce at current prices.

As the underlying commodity price rises, these types of projects gain value exponentially… making shareholders like you rich in the process.

There are tons of screaming buys out there right now. Especially in the oil sector.

Many quality companies were hammered down 90% or more in the past 6 months. Oilsands Quest (BQI: 0.72 -0.06 -7.69%), a company sitting on billions of barrels in Canada’s oil sands, comes to mind. You should load up on bargains like that while you can because…

Inflation is already creeping into the system.

January’s Producer Price Index (PPI) hit 0.8%, four-times the markets 0.2% expectation. And the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was double expectations at 0.2%.

It’s only a matter of time before Wall Street institutions figure this out and jump all over these stocks.

Tarullo Calls for Consolidated Supervisor

Jakarta, Financeroll.com – Federal Reserve Board of Governor Daniel Tarullo said today that each systemically financial firm should be subject to a consolidated supervisor that would monitor it's risk taking, risk management, financial standing, and be hold it to high capital and liquidity standards.


In his testimony today before to the Senate Banking Committee, Tarullo said that supervision of individual financial firms is "not a sufficient condition for financial stability" but certainly "a necessary condition."

Another condition that is going forward would be for the US to establish methods through with to orderly resolved institutional failures, particularly if government assistance is required. He added that lessons could be learned from the frameworks in place under the Federal Deposit Insurance Act and those established for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008. "Both models allow a government agency to take control of a failing institutions’ operations and management, act as conservator or receiver for the institution, and establish a 'bridge' institutions to facilitate an orderly sale or liquidation of the firm."

On improving financial infrastructure that supports trades, payments, clearings and settlements, Tarullo stated that the Fed is considering the idea of a central clearing system. He added "Given how important robust payment and settlement systems are to financial stability, and the functional similarities between many payment and settlement systems, a good case can be made for granting the Federal Reserve explicit oversight authority for systemically important payment and settlement systems."

Tarullo also expressed support for a systemic regulator, which he said would serve to complement, does not replace the consolidated supervisor role he feels is so necessary.

Written by denny yahya


Euro weakens on speculation ECB will cut rates

Jakarta, Financeroll.com - The euro fell the most in two weeks against the yen on speculation European policy makers will cut interest rates further as central banks worldwide battle the global financial turmoil.

The European currency declined to 128.94 yen. The euro fell to $1.3433. The yen was at 96.02 per dollar.




European Stocks And Bonds Surge, Dollar Weakens On Fed Move

By Martin Essex
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


LONDON (Dow Jones)--European stocks and bonds surged, while the dollar weakened and oil prices jumped as Europe's markets reacted strongly to the U.S. Federal Reserve's move Wednesday to buy $300 billion of long-term Treasurys and up to $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.


The dollar was a major casualty of the Fed's move further into quantitative easing. The euro soared to $1.3473 in late New York business Wednesday, up from $1.3017 the day before, and was even higher by 1015 GMT Thursday, at $1.3514 - above the key $1.35 level for the first time since Jan. 9.

The Fed's move into quantitative easing Wednesday broke the dollar's back and henceforth any periods of intra- and inter-day dollar strength is to be sold into rather than weakness bought, said Dennis Gartman in The Gartman Letter.

"Further, this sets the tone for how we shall trade commodities henceforth: bullishly and almost universally so," he said.

The move in bond markets was equally dramatic. After the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tumbled in New York Wednesday to end at 2.545%, down from 3.01% Tuesday, it fell even further to 2.53% at 1025 GMT Thursday, after briefly touching 2.50%.

In response the 10-year benchmark German bund yield dropped to 3.06% from 3.22% late Wednesday, and the 10-year bellwether U.K. gilt yield fell to 3.015% from 3.105%.

The effects of the Fed's further move into quantitative easing - a weaker dollar, lower bond yields and firmer equities - are likely to continue, at least for a while, said Marshall Gittler, chief strategist at Deutsche Bank (Suisse).

"The purchases will help to absorb the supply of bonds that will be coming in the next few months due to mortgage refinancing and Treasury issuance to fund the budget deficit," he added.

Stock prices firmed, with the major European indexes gaining between 0.5% and 0.9%, and the April Nymex crude oil futures contract climbed to $50 per barrel for the first time since Jan. 26, trading at $50.15 at 1035 GMT.

Looking ahead, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's detailing of the U.S. toxic asset sale plan in Congress Thursday could be crucial for all asset markets and bank stocks in particular, with participants looking for details of how toxic assets could be removed from balance sheets, said Kenneth Broux, an economist at Lloyds Banking Group.

"A positive outcome could help the dollar to claw back ground against its major counterparts," he added.

Moreover, the U.S. stock markets may struggle to keep up their advance. "The (Fed's) news helped to lift the major indexes overnight but it seems we may not be able to hold on to the gains," said Nick Mitchell, a dealer at CMC Markets.

-By Martin Essex, Dow Jones Newswires; +44-20-7842-9464; martin.essex@dowjones.com

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/access/al?rnd=9wJyqpDVRkP1dIKEQFegyw%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 19, 2009 06:58 ET (10:58 GMT)




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